www.ecb.europa.eu
7 March 2023
- consumer expectations for inflation 12 months and three years ahead declined;
- expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months continued to rise, while expectations for nominal spending growth declined further;
- expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became less negative and expectations for the unemployment rate in 12 months’ time decreased;
- consumers’ expectations for growth in the price of their home over the next 12 months weakened, while those for mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead remained unchanged.
Inflation
The median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months declined to 9.5% in January 2023, from 9.9% in December 2022. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months edged down to 4.9% from 5.0%, while median expectations for inflation three years ahead declined significantly to 2.5%, from 3.0% in the previous month. Inflation expectations remained well below the perceived past inflation rate, particularly at the horizon of three years. Uncertainty about inflation expectations 12 months ahead edged up but remained broadly in line with the elevated levels observed since March 2022. Inflation perceptions and expectations were closely aligned across income groups, but younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 55-70). (Inflation results)
Income and consumption
Consumers expected their nominal…