Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Delphi Economic Forum IX

Delphi, 12 April 2024

For centuries the oracle of Delphi guided those seeking advice on what the future might hold.^[1] Perhaps the most famous prophecy originating here from the Temple of Apollo is the one delivered during the Ancient Greek era to Croesus, the King of Lydia. When he consulted the oracle about going to war with Persia, he was told that if he were to attack, “a great empire would fall”. Emboldened by this apparent foresight, King Croesus went to war. And an empire did indeed fall. But it was the Lydians, not the Persians, who were defeated. The oracle was right. Yet King Croesus had overlooked the considerable room for interpretation that the prophecy allowed, with significant implications for his assessment of the outlook and the consequences of his decisions.

Today, policymakers count not on prophecies and…