Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the 25th ECB and Its Watchers conference organised by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University Frankfurt

Frankfurt am Main, 12 March 2025

Paul Valéry wrote that “the trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be”.

Our expectations have indeed been swept aside in the last few years, and in the last few weeks in particular.

Established certainties about the international order have been upended. Some alliances have become strained while others have drawn closer. We have seen political decisions that would have been unthinkable only a few months ago.

The level of uncertainty we are facing is exceptionally high.

An index of trade policy uncertainty currently stands at close to 350, more than six times its average value since 2021.^[1] And indicators of geopolitical risk stand at levels not seen since the Cold War, outside of wars and major terrorist attacks.^[2]

This new environment…