Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) Annual General Meeting

Amsterdam, 15 May 2025

Introduction

Recent months have been rather eventful on global financial markets, bringing to the fore discussions about risks to financial stability and the resilience of financial institutions. I would like to explore these topics in more detail today, with a particular focus on the euro area.

A volatile and uncertain macro-financial outlook

Faced with the reality that globalisation as we know it has come to an end, the world is adjusting to a new environment. As our economic and financial systems adapt, greater geoeconomic fragmentation globally may increase the likelihood of more frequent and more impactful adverse tail events. The most immediate concern is that ongoing trade tensions could escalate into a trade war, with potentially significant negative consequences for global growth, inflation and asset prices.

As the…