Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Marta Vilar on 6 February 2026

10 February 2026

Vice-President de Guindos, you have said the ECB would adjust its policy if changing conditions warranted it. What kinds of developments would prompt a shift in policy, either upward or downward?

Let me start by elaborating on the outlook. The economy has proven more resilient than we had projected, which is good news. Leading indicators even suggest that growth in the first quarter of 2026 is likely to exceed most of the projections. Headline inflation stands at 1.7%, while core inflation has declined and is moving closer to our target. This was factored into our projections, as we knew that some base effects would occur – and they have occurred. As a result, we are in a better position in terms of growth, and inflation is converging to target.

Among the risks we foresee, the first is the geopolitical situation, including developments in Ukraine, the Middle East…