The global economy is navigating turbulent waters. Competing forces affecting economic growth are intersecting in a complex and uncertain environment. Global growth has been supported by rising investments related to artificial intelligence and fiscal policy across major economies. At the same time, geopolitical and trade tensions are a headwind and a major source of risks. The adverse effects on the global economy from the war in the Middle East primarily stem from the sharp increase in energy prices. Together with tighter financial conditions and heightened uncertainty, the war is having a negative impact on global growth, while posing upside risks to inflation. Other geopolitical tensions, in particular Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine, remain a major source of uncertainty.

Protectionist…