Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Shogo Akagawa and Shiori Goso on 19 May 2026

26 May 20256

The Middle East continues to face heightened geopolitical tensions. How do you assess the potential impact on the euro area economy, and do you see any need to revise your macroeconomic projections at the June Governing Council meeting?

There are several factors related to the Iran war that show that the macroeconomic outlook has gotten worse. We can see from the survey data and other indicators that there is an increase in uncertainty. High energy prices are pushing down consumption and investment in Europe. As the euro area is a large net importer of energy, this is an important drag on economic activity. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could lead to a more prolonged period of economic weakness. To some extent, this downside had already been incorporated into the March forecast, but we will assess in June whether further revisions…