Panel remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum

Geneva, 20 August 2025

The global economy is at a challenging juncture. But despite recent trade tensions and substantial uncertainty, global growth has remained broadly steady so far.

This resilience has been mainly driven by tariff-induced distortions of economic activity. In the first quarter of the year, for example, we saw strong global frontloading as importers boosted their inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs.

That has led to stronger than expected growth. The International Monetary Fund finds that global growth for the first quarter of 2025 was 0.3 percentage points higher than it had projected back in April – with international trade and investment driving activity.^[1]

Recent trade deals have alleviated, but certainly not eliminated, global uncertainty, which persists on account of the unpredictable policy environment. One index of global…