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Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 10-11 September 2025
9 October 2025
1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options
Financial market developments
Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that since the Governing Council’s previous monetary policy meeting on 23-24 July 2025, interest rate markets in the euro area and the United States had been pulled in different directions, leading to a convergence of policy rate expectations. In the euro area, expectations for interest rates had shifted higher, with reduced uncertainty around the rate outlook, as a consensus had formed that interest rates were currently in a “good place” and close to or at the end of the monetary policy cycle. Markets had fully priced out any rate cut at the current meeting and assigned a significantly lower probability to another 25 basis point rate cut by…