Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Ragnar Nurkse Memorial Lecture organised by Eesti Pank

Tallinn, 26 March 2026

Introduction

It is a privilege to be here in Tallinn to deliver this lecture in memory of Professor Ragnar Nurkse. Widely regarded as one of the intellectual fathers of the post-war Bretton Woods system, his work showed how external shocks and structural imbalances can shape the trajectories of open economies. Those insights remain profoundly relevant in today’s increasingly turbulent world.

The successive crises since the pandemic have tested the euro area in ways that few could have anticipated. Tallinn is an apt place to reflect on this – Estonia has perhaps experienced the impact of these shocks more acutely than most, notably the energy price surge sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the unprecedented inflation that reached its all-time high of 25% in August 2022, just two years on from a period of deflation.

Estonia, and the…