16 September 2026

• ECB wage tracker updated with wage agreements signed up to end of August 2026; forward-looking horizon extended to end of June 2027
• Forward-looking information indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.7% in first half of 2027
• Employee coverage still limited in first half of 2027 at 28.8% but set to steadily increase over time as wage agreements are signed

The European Central Bank (ECB) wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage pressures with smoothed one-off payments of 2.2% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 46.9% of employees in participating countries). The headline wage tracker indicator stands at 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027 (based on a coverage of 32.5%) and 2.8% in the second quarter of 2027 (based on a coverage of 25.1%). The lower wage tracker in the first half of 2026 reflects the downward mechanical impact of one-off payments that were initially paid in the second half of 2024 and not repeated in the…