19 July 2024

• Inflation expectations unchanged for 2024 and 2025, at 2.4% and 2.0% respectively, and revised marginally downwards for 2026 to 1.9%; longer-term inflation expectations (for 2029) stand at 2.0%
• Real GDP growth expectations broadly unchanged over the survey horizon; upward revision for 2024 largely reflects stronger than expected outcome for the first quarter of 2024
• Unemployment rate expectations revised down slightly for 2024 to 2026

In the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2024, respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured in terms of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), were unchanged for 2024 and 2025, at 2.4% and 2.0% respectively, and revised marginally downwards for 2026 to 1.9%. Expectations for core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, were revised upwards slightly for 2024 and 2025, reflecting data outturns and more persistent than expected services inflation and labour cost growth….