www.ecb.europa.eu
Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa
6 February 2025
The ECB has said that the direction of travel for monetary policy is clear, but the timing and extent of moves is not. What does this guidance mean to you?
We are moving towards the target. The direction of inflation is clear, despite some small bumps. All incoming information points to a convergence with the target in 2025 and this is what our models are also telling us.
Our models include market expectations for the interest rate path, so this convergence with the inflation target is coherent with a declining interest rate path.
Everything is of course contingent on the information at the time of the forecasts, and we will have a new forecast round in March. Before then, we’ll get another inflation print, we’ll have more details on the composition of inflation, and all these feed into the model, as do market expectations for interest rates.
Does that mean implicitly that you are…