6 March 2025

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance – is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

The disinflation process is well on track. Inflation has continued to develop broadly as staff expected, and the latest projections closely align with the previous inflation outlook. Staff now see headline inflation averaging 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027. The upward revision in headline inflation for 2025 reflects stronger energy price dynamics. For inflation excluding energy and food, staff project an average of 2.2% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.

Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council’s…